Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 2.300015 2.436395 2.584706 2.759586 2.962377 3.193060 3.479828
2025-05-18 2.109933 2.275717 2.463657 2.696372 2.982776 3.332768 3.809147
2025-05-25 2.002869 2.188753 2.406084 2.685598 3.046764 3.516638 4.213994
2025-06-01 1.917083 2.115754 2.353576 2.668751 3.092688 3.675223 4.613654
2025-06-08 1.844323 2.051277 2.303703 2.646532 3.123628 3.811900 5.011601
2025-06-15 1.802994 2.021405 2.293070 2.671838 3.219198 4.054870 5.664529
2025-06-22 1.723185 1.938293 2.208032 2.588306 3.146901 4.021788 5.790387
2025-06-29 1.681178 1.900762 2.179644 2.579805 3.183415 4.170152 6.344515
2025-07-06 1.625917 1.843502 2.121809 2.525135 3.142874 4.178693 6.589579
2025-07-13 1.609371 1.835369 2.128692 2.562719 3.249550 4.468174 7.707515
2025-07-20 1.605571 1.843330 2.157210 2.633298 3.417594 4.915856 9.797478
2025-07-27 1.578380 1.818822 2.139263 2.632178 3.463498 5.125763 11.411417
2025-08-03 1.551650 1.795040 2.122703 2.634443 3.520257 5.387692 14.052940
2025-08-10 1.508496 1.747461 2.070284 2.577135 3.462578 5.365627 14.992132
2025-08-17 1.482466 1.722311 2.048781 2.567328 3.491894 5.568887 18.806981
2025-08-24 1.456519 1.696353 2.024919 2.552028 3.508849 5.746810 24.466365
2025-08-31 1.430749 1.669803 1.999086 2.531847 3.514017 5.895782 33.670340
2025-09-07 1.418720 1.661759 1.999728 2.554816 3.607138 6.339798 159.983941
2025-09-14 1.380179 1.615744 1.942854 2.478893 3.490790 6.090495 94.901481
2025-09-21 1.361930 1.597706 1.926916 2.471150 3.515712 6.315563 NaN
2025-09-28 1.333176 1.564281 1.887134 2.421301 3.448162 6.211941 NaN
2025-10-05 1.328055 1.563914 1.896585 2.455583 3.562873 6.795980 NaN
2025-10-12 1.330578 1.574322 1.922493 2.519816 3.753264 7.832025 NaN